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As the California referendum draws the
political periscope westward, nine Democratic presidential contenders
continue to wail away out east. If
you read the national newsmagazines, former Governor Howard Dean, who
recently polled second in national surveys, seems poised to ride a
recent media surge all the way to the Boston convention. But before the
Dems crown their new prince, perhaps they should check their own
political calendar. Although the antiwar Gov. Dean certainly has
locked up the internet vote, he has yet to make inroads with Southerners
and moderates. Not that he
necessarily needs the South, Dukakis, the only New Englander to win the
nomination in 40 years, won the nomination without the region, but that
means he must win the rest of the country’s and party elite’s
delegates outright, an unlikely proposition for Gov. Dean. Gov. Dean faces a strict test of uniting the
party under the banner of an antiwar northeastern politician. This would not be so bad if there were not already two other
strong New Englanders in the race, and that over sixty percent of the
country opposes his one identifiable issue, opposition to the war. Even
so, Dean might still be able to sway his party to support him if he had
the time to convince them of his peace stance.
Unfortunately, time too sides against him. As reported, states are cramming their
primaries as early as possible to affect the nomination process. Over
two dozen states have moved up their primaries weeks or months earlier
than normal to capture a slice of election frenzy and media exposure.
What emerges is a two month free-for-all where the nomination
will be settled outright or not-at-all by mid-March.
Democrat elites, who will appoint 1/3 of the convention’s
delegates and are apparently not fans of the Vermont Governor, believe
that the condensed electoral process will create early consensus,
allowing the nominee to cruise to victory with plenty of money and time
to build his candidacy before the convention. This may be wishful thinking, as the party
seems divided on both regional and ideological grounds. For example, Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman appear intent on
beheading each other in the Northeast.
Edwards looks strong down South, but weak elsewhere.
Sen. Graham appears headed nowhere but sunny Florida. Gephardt
can count on Midwest and union help, but has failed to spark nationally.
Long shots Moseley-Braun and Sharpton will split African-American
support, while Kucinich will siphon some of Dean’s internet backing. Currently,
none of the candidates poll over 25%. Normally, this does not pose a
problem, for as the sweepstakes roll merrily along, major donor money
and media attention quickly drain to a traditional front-runner (in this
case Dean) and one worthy adversary.
But what happens if no dominant pack leader emerges, and the
shortened political timeframe leaves no one with a clear majority.
Several candidates, who ordinarily would drop out early, might be
tempted to hold out with an aspiration of regional victories or to
increase their prospective bargaining chips come late spring.
As long as three contenders remain standing by July, there is
potential for mischief. Also remember that many Democratic primaries
allocate delegates proportionally, in contrast to the Republicans’
winner-take-all approach, which can spread the delegate count even
further. Nevertheless,
one must admit that the possibility that Dean or anyone else not
garnering a majority remains slight.
Six decades of political tradition espouse that one candidate
will emerge, batter his opponents to oblivion, and walk to Boston
unopposed. But don’t forget that electoral history also contains
numerous examples of contested party primaries with surprise finishes,
some of which required fierce runoffs to determine a winner.
In that case, the showdown would not occur on some ill-conceived
dreary Tuesday in April, but among major party players in a “No
Smoking” filled back room of Boston’s Fleet Center with a Sam Adams
beer keg in one corner and a vat of gourmet baked beans in the other. ©John
Raines2003
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